In this video, Dr. Roger Seheult of MedCram talks about excess deaths that are discussed in an article that suggests there are a high number of deaths related indirectly to COVID-19. From a poll in the American College of Emergency Physicians, it reported that 29% of Americans were avoiding or delaying medical care due to fear of contracting SARS-CoV-2. Early in the pandemic, Dr. Seheult, notes that many operating rooms were shut down and elective surgeries were postponed. For example, people who might have had appendicitis were coming in with later presentations rather than early on when they first developed symptoms. This led to many more cases of perforated or ruptured appendicitis. This was a ripple effect of COVID-19 that was causing disruptions. This was happening not only in the hospital but also in primary care offices.
Excess mortality
When Dr. Seheult compares excess mortality, which is determined by death certificates, and correlates it with the surges of COVID-19, prior to vaccines, it appears that the excess deaths were occurring around the same time as surge waves. During the surges, the hospitals were overrun with COVID-19 patients and governors of many states had to implement crisis protocols to determine which patients would or could get an intervention or treatment when resources were tight.
In the U.S. the excess mortality was most notably prior to the advent of the vaccines and one can also see that the surges were associated with excess deaths. Of note, there is no evidence of any increase in excess deaths with the administration of the vaccines. Excess mortality is not projected numbers or based on sampling. These are absolute numbers. Currently at the present time, at least in the U.S., the excess mortality is almost back at baseline.
US vs UK excess deaths
Why then do other countries such as the UK appear to have higher excess deaths? Dr. Seheult looked at an article from the journal Oncology. They found that cancer screenings dropped significantly which leads to a decrease finding of cancer early and hence more likely to lead to death. In the UK, there was an 89% decrease in breast cancer screenings, 85% decrease in colorectal cancer screenings and overall cancer diagnosis was down 65%. They predicted an 8-9% increase in breast cancer deaths, 15-16% increase in colorectal cancer deaths and about 5% increase in lung cancer deaths. These are very much non-COVID related deaths. People during COVID-19, did not get their screening as planned or may have lost confidence in their physician and then delayed going in to see someone until they were very symptomatic. This is a non-COVID excess death, whereas in previous years, this same person would have continued with their screenings. This is a large proportion of the non-COVID excess deaths. In addition, there were people who developed depression due to the shut down and/or lost loved ones and committed suicide. This too accounts for some of the excess deaths.
In the US, surveys found that about 39% of adults over 55 missed their routine cancer screenings. Now looking at baseline trends, there is an increase in excess deaths in the UK compared to the U.S. Prior to the pandemic, the US and UK were similar in their baseline excess deaths. Both countries got vaccinations that were similar so that does not explain the increase in deaths in the UK compared to the U.S.
At this point in time there is no evidence of a surge or wave; however, winter is still approaching. It is a valid point to have a discussion as to whether getting a vaccine at this point in time would be beneficial. Each individual needs to decide their own personal risk and benefit for getting the vaccine and/or booster.
LINKS / REFERENCES:
Public Poll: Emergency Care Concerns Amidst COVID-19 (American College of Emergency Physicians) | https://www.emergencyphysicians.org/a…
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